2014 NBA Playoffs Conference Finals Preview

After an excellent first round, my model had a much less successful second round, as I was 5-5-0 against the spread using my model with subjective adjustments, making me 25-19 for the entire playoffs.  Here are the full results:

LAC 6 times: 2-4-0
WAS 3 times: 3-1-0

Granted, this was an extremely small sample size, and adding my second-round results to my first-round results doesn't significantly increase the likelihood a coin-flip strategy would match my record.  The bigger issue is the 2-4 record betting on the Clippers given the confidence I had in that bet.  Specifically, a 57%-weighted coin would be just as likely to finish with a record as poor as 2-4 as a fair coin would be to finish with a record as good as 25-19.

2014 NBA Playoffs 2nd Round Preview

There are many potential areas of improvement in both the model and the testing of the model, most importantly perhaps a means of adjusting for various series states (i.e. how should the line be adjusted when the home team is down 1-0), but in the still small sample size of the first round, I was 20-14-1 against the spread using my model with subjective adjustments.  While that's a 59% win percentage (which would be amazing if it were indeed my true win percentage), the small sample size means that this likely isn't my true win percentage, as even a coin flip would still finish with the same record or better in 34 trials 20% of the time.  Here are the full results:

ATL 6 times: 3-2-1
MIA 3 times: 2-1-0
BKN 7 times: 4-3-0
CHI 2 tims: 1-1-0
DAL 1 time: 1-0-0
SAS 1 time: 0-1-0
MEM 7 times : 4-3-0
GSW 7 times: 5-2-0
HOU 1 time: 0-1-0